WRC
WRC title permutations: What can be decided in Chile?
The calculators are coming out as the FIA World Rally Championship heads straight from ueno Rally del Paraguay to Rally Chile Bio Bío next week.
Just three rounds of the 2026 season remain following ueno Rally del Paraguay, where Sami Pajari’s third consecutive victory reduced Elfyn Evans’ drivers’ championship advantage to 20 points.
Chile cannot settle that particular battle, but titles can be won elsewhere – including the manufacturers’ championship, where Toyota Gazoo Racing WRT once again has the opportunity to equal Lancia’s all-time record.
Here’s what is at stake on the 16-stage gravel fixture around Concepción.*
WRC Drivers: title fight tightens, but nobody can clinch
Evans left Paraguay on 216 points, with Pajari on 196 and Oliver Solberg third on 175. Takamoto Katsuta, Adrien Fourmaux, Sébastien Ogier and Thierry Neuville also remain mathematically in contention.
With a maximum of 35 points available at each WRC round – 25 for victory, five for Super Sunday and five on the Wolf Power Stage – there are still 105 to play for.
That means the drivers’ title cannot be won in Chile, whatever happens.
But eliminations are possible. After Chile, only 70 points will remain available in Italy and Saudi Arabia, meaning anybody leaving Concepción more than 70 points behind the championship leader will be out of contention.
Pajari’s Paraguay victory cut Evans’ advantage from 30 points to 20.
© WRC
Pajari cannot be eliminated in Chile, even if Evans takes a maximum score and he leaves empty-handed.
The same scenarios apply to the FIA World Rally Championship for Co-Drivers, where Scott Martin leads Marko Salminen by 20 points and Elliott Edmondson is third.
Manufacturers: Toyota can equal Lancia's record
This is the big one.
Toyota left Paraguay with 554 points against Hyundai Shell Mobis World Rally Team’s 381 – a 173-point advantage with three rounds remaining.
A maximum of 60 manufacturers’ points can be scored at each rally, leaving 120 available after Chile.
Therefore Hyundai must outscore Toyota by at least 54 points in Chile to keep the championship alive.
Toyota can clinch a record-equalling 10th manufacturers’ title in Chile.
© WRC
Put another way, seven points for Toyota would be sufficient to guarantee the title even if Hyundai takes the maximum 60, with a potential tie ultimately falling Toyota’s way on countback. Toyota has overwhelmingly more rally victories in 2026, and FIA regulations settle tied manufacturer scores through the number of highest finishing positions.
Should it get the job done, Toyota would secure its 10th manufacturers’ title, drawing level with Lancia at the top of the WRC’s all-time list.
WRC2: Virves must wait for the outright crown
Robert Virves remains in command despite failing to score any points in Paraguay.
The Estonian has 100 points, 21 more than Roope Korhonen and 24 ahead of Teemu Suninen. Nikolay Gryazin is fourth on 66 points. Neither Korhonen nor Suninen is entered in Chile.
But even a Virves victory cannot secure the outright WRC2 title in Chile.
A fifth maximum score would take Virves to 125, while Suninen retains enough nominated scoring opportunities to reach a theoretical maximum of 126 by winning in both Italy and Saudi Arabia.
The same applies to the WRC2 Co-Drivers’ Championship, led by Virves’ co-driver Jakko Viilo.
So, regardless of the result in Chile, the outright WRC2 championships will continue to Italy.
Robert Virves can secure the WRC2 Challenger title with victory in Chile.
© WRC
WRC2 Challenger: match point for Virves
Here, the situation is different.
Virves leads WRC2 Challenger on 100 points from Korhonen on 94 and Léo Rossel on 81.
Taking the Challenger victory in Chile would move Virves to 125 and guarantee him the drivers’ title.
Korhonen, who is absent from Chile, could reach no higher than 119 from his remaining nominated scoring opportunity.
Rossel could theoretically reach 125, but a Chile victory for Virves would give the Estonian five Challenger wins and an unbeatable countback advantage.
The equation, therefore, is wonderfully simple:
Virves wins WRC2 Challenger in Chile = Virves is champion.
Anything less and the battle continues.
Curiously, that does not apply to Viilo in the Challenger Co-Drivers’ Championship.
Viilo leads Anssi Viinikka 100-99, with Guillaume Mercoiret third on 85. Although Viinikka’s maximum can be covered, Mercoiret retains enough scoring opportunities to reach 129. Viilo therefore cannot clinch the co-drivers’ crown in Chile.
WRC2 Teams: already decided
One trophy is already spoken for.
Lancia Corse HF clinched the WRC2 Teams’ Championship in Paraguay, where Nikolay Gryazin and Yohan Rossel brought home the points required to put the crown beyond Toksport WRT’s reach under the championship’s nominated-event and counted-score system.
It marks a title in Lancia’s first season back in the World Rally Championship.
Lancia Corse HF sealed the WRC2 Teams’ Championship in Paraguay.
© WRC
WRC3: Fontana guaranteed to leave Chile on top
Matteo Fontana leads WRC3 with 117 points, 26 ahead of Gil Membrado and Tymek Abramowski, who are tied on 91.
Fontana is not entered in Chile – but nor is Abramowski.
Membrado is, and victory would take the Spaniard to 116 points. That means Fontana is guaranteed to remain championship leader after Chile regardless of what happens, albeit by potentially only a single point.
He cannot, however, secure the championship there. Abramowski retains enough scoring potential over the remaining rounds to surpass Fontana's current tally.
The WRC3 title therefore cannot be decided before Rally Italia.
The same broad picture applies to the co-drivers’ championship, where Fontana’s partner Alessandro Arnaboldi holds 117 points and is guaranteed to retain the lead after Chile.
Keferböck could become WRC Masters Cup champion without competing in Chile.
© WRC
Masters Cup: Keferböck can become champion from home
Johannes Keferböck leads the FIA WRC Masters Cup on 119 points but is not entered in Chile.
His nearest challengers are Ugur Soylu on 80, Miguel Granados on 79 and Andrea Lafarja on 75. Once their remaining scoring nominations and the best-six-from-seven rule are factored in, Granados is the only driver who can still deny Keferböck the title.
Granados is entered in Chile and needs to finish first or second to keep the fight going.
Third place or lower for Granados would make Keferböck the Masters Cup champion without the Austrian even starting the rally.
There is a similar situation among the co-drivers.
Ilka Minor leads with 132 points but is absent from Chile, while Granados’ co-driver Marc Martí has 92.
Martí must finish on the podium to keep his championship hopes alive. Fourth or lower would hand Minor the co-drivers’ crown.
Carlberg leads Türkkan by three points heading into the Junior WRC finale.
© WRC
FIA Junior WRC: the title WILL be decided in Chile
There will definitely be championship celebrations in Junior WRC because Chile is its fifth and final round – and the stakes are amplified by the double-points finale.
Calle Carlberg leads Ali Türkkan by only three points, 95 to 92, followed by Gil Membrado on 71, Leevi Lassila on 61 and Kerem Kazaz on 32. All five retain a mathematical route to the drivers’ title.
There is a catch to those apparently simple standings.
Junior WRC drivers count their best four classification results, while the bonus point available for every stage victory can be retained across all five rounds. Classification points are doubled in Chile for crews meeting the required participation criteria.
That means the effective permutations are more complicated than the three-point headline gap suggests.
The key numbers are:
- Carlberg wins in Chile – he is Junior WRC champion, irrespective of stage-win bonuses.
- Türkkan must score at least 14 more points than Carlberg in Chile to beat him outright. A 13-point swing would leave them tied and invoke the championship tie-break.
- Membrado needs to outscore Carlberg by at least 37 points.
- Lassila needs a 41-point advantage over Carlberg.
- Kazaz requires a 64-point swing.
With 50 points available for victory and another 16 potentially available for winning every stage, those latter scenarios are unlikely – but mathematically possible.
And there is another twist around Türkkan: regular co-driver Oytun Albayrak is not entered alongside him in Chile, with Bilge Ayan taking that seat.
Consequently the Junior WRC Co-Drivers’ Championship has a different shape. Jørgen Eriksen leads on 95 points, with Adrián Pérez and Mikko Lukka the remaining entered co-drivers capable of denying him the title.
At a glance
Championship
Can it be decided in Chile?
WRC Drivers / Co-Drivers
No
WRC Manufacturers
Yes – Toyota can clinch
WRC2 Drivers / Co-Drivers
No
WRC2 Challenger Drivers
Yes – Virves can clinch with victory
WRC2 Challenger Co-Drivers
No
WRC2 Teams
Already won by Lancia
WRC3 Drivers / Co-Drivers
No
WRC Masters Drivers
Yes – Keferböck can clinch
WRC Masters Co-Drivers
Yes – Minor can clinch
Junior WRC Drivers / Co-Drivers
Yes – season finale
Rally Chile Bio Bío takes place from 10–13 September, with 16 stages covering 311.70 competitive kilometres around Concepción.
*Championship permutations are based on current standings and are subject to change following publication of the Rally Italia entry list on Friday 11 September.
