WRC
Who can win the 2026 WRC title in Sardinia - and how?
Three drivers. One rally. And 35 points left on the table.
Rally Italia Sardegna will bring the 2026 FIA World Rally Championship to a dramatic conclusion next week, with Toyota team-mates Elfyn Evans, Sami Pajari and Oliver Solberg the only drivers still capable of being crowned world champion.
The equation changed significantly when it was confirmed that Rally Saudi Arabia would no longer form part of the 2026 WRC season, promoting Sardinia to the role of championship finale.
Evans heads to Alghero with 230 points, 17 clear of Pajari and 21 ahead of Solberg. All three are chasing a maiden WRC drivers' crown.
Under the current scoring system, 25 points are available for victory, with 17 for second, 15 for third, 12 for fourth and 10 for fifth. A further five points are available for topping the Super Sunday classification and another five on the Wolf Power Stage, meaning a maximum haul of 35.
So, what does each contender need?
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Elfyn Evans - 230 points
The Welshman will be world champion if he scores 19 points or more, regardless of what Pajari or Solberg achieve.
Victory in Sardinia would therefore guarantee the title immediately, even without any Super Sunday or Wolf Power Stage points.
There are several other ways for Evans to reach the magic 19-point mark:
• Second overall plus at least two Sunday bonus points
• Third overall plus at least four bonus points
• Fourth overall plus at least seven bonus points
• Fifth overall plus at least nine bonus points
Sixth place is worth eight points, meaning even a clean sweep of the 10 Sunday points would only take Evans to 18. From there, his fate would depend on the results of his two rivals.
Anything below 19 does not rule Evans out. It simply opens the door.
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Sami Pajari - 213 points
Pajari arrives 17 points behind Evans after a breakthrough run of three victories in Estonia, Finland and Paraguay.
To move ahead of Evans outright, the Finn must score at least 18 points more than the championship leader.
He also begins the rally four points ahead of Solberg, so he needs to keep an eye behind as well. If Solberg scores five points more than Pajari, the Swede moves ahead of him outright.
A maximum 35-point weekend would take Pajari to 248 points.
In that scenario Evans could score no more than 18. If Evans scored exactly 18, the pair would finish tied on 248, but Pajari's Sardinia victory would give him four rally wins this season compared with Evans' two and hand him the title on countback.
Pajari therefore controls his own side of the equation only by scoring heavily. Anything less brings both Evans and Solberg increasingly into play.
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Oliver Solberg - 209 points
Solberg has the biggest deficit to overturn, but his commanding victory in Chile ensured he remains firmly in the fight.
The Swede starts Sardinia 21 points behind Evans and four behind Pajari.
To finish ahead of both on points alone, Solberg needs to score at least 22 points more than Evans and five more than Pajari.
A perfect 35-point score would lift him to 244 points.
If Solberg achieves that maximum, Evans could score no more than 15 points and still leave the title within the Swede's reach. Fifteen would leave the pair level on 244, but victory in Sardinia would give Solberg a third win of the season against Evans' two, putting him ahead on countback.
With Solberg taking the rally win plus maximum Super Sunday and Power Stage points, Pajari would be unable to match 244.
What happens if they finish level on points?
Any championship tie is settled first by the number of rally victories achieved during the season, followed by second places, third places and so on.
That makes Sardinia especially significant. Pajari currently has three wins, while Evans and Solberg each have two, but the finishing order in Italy could alter the countback picture.
It means there is no single pre-rally answer to every possible tied-points scenario. The exact finishing positions would need to be considered alongside the final championship totals.
What is certain is that Evans has the clearest target: 19 points guarantees the championship.
Anything less, and the fight can remain alive right through Super Sunday and the final Wolf Power Stage of the season.
